Glenavon FC vs Newington Youth Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Glenavon FC and 1.95 for Newington Youth, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Newington Youth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Glenavon FC home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Newington Youth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newington Youth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 38% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Glenavon FC and 1.95 for Newington Youth, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Glenavon FC win38%

Draw21%

Newington Youth win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–18.0%
1–27.8%
2–17.5%
2–27.3%
1–35.1%

Recent form

Glenavon FC

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Annagh United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Loughgall · 4-1 (W)

Newington Youth

2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Institute · 0-7 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 1-0 Newington Youth (Championship)
2026-01-13T19:45:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 4-2 Newington Youth (Irish Cup)
2024-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 3-2 Newington Youth (League Cup)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	8	2	3	7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	7	3	2	16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	6	3	4	2	21
5	Queen's University	13	6	2	5	8	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	4	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	-5	17
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	-11	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	2	4	7	-11	10
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.