KGV Park · Analysis updated 09:50 UTC
Glenorchy Knights vs Kingborough Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Glenorchy Knights and 2.68 for Kingborough Lions, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Kingborough Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kingborough Lions win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kingborough Lions away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kingborough Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 15% / 17% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Glenorchy Knights and 2.68 for Kingborough Lions, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–16.7%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Glenorchy Knights
Kingborough Lions
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · A vs South Hobart · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T06:45:00.000Z · H vs Launceston City · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Devonport City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Clarence Zebras · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Launceston United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tasmania NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 27 |
| 6 | Riverside | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -25 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | -44 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kingborough Lions win, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.