The BetMcLean Oval · Analysis updated 23:52 UTC
Glentoran vs Ballymena United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Glentoran and 1.05 for Ballymena United, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Glentoran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Glentoran home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ballymena United away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Glentoran
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Coleraine FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-1 (D)
Ballymena United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · Glentoran 2-0 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2026-02-14T15:00:00.000Z · Glentoran 2-1 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Glentoran 2-0 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2025-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · Glentoran 2-0 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2025-03-04T19:45:00.000Z · Glentoran 1-0 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2025-02-18T19:45:00.000Z · Glentoran 1-1 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2025-01-07T19:45:00.000Z · Glentoran 2-0 Ballymena United (League Cup)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Glentoran 0-1 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2024-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · Glentoran 4-0 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2023-11-18T15:00:00.000Z · Glentoran 5-0 Ballymena United (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.