· Analysis updated 17:34 UTC
Gloria Băneasa vs Portul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.89 expected goals for Gloria Băneasa and 1.58 for Portul Constanta, a combined total of 4.47. That distribution gives Gloria Băneasa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Gloria Băneasa win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
2.89 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gloria Băneasa home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gloria Băneasa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 17% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.89 goals for Gloria Băneasa and 1.58 for Portul Constanta, a combined 4.47 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 75%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–26.0%
- 3–25.7%
- 4–15.2%
Recent form
Gloria Băneasa
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Fundulea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Agricola Borcea · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Oţelul II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunarea Calarasi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Înainte Modelu · 0-1 (L)
Portul Constanta
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
| 2 | Progresul Fundulea | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting Lieşti | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 |
| 4 | Unirea Braniştea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Înainte Modelu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Axiopolis | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Agigea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -26 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gloria Băneasa win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.