· Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Gloria Băneasa vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Gloria Băneasa and 1.48 for Recolta Gheorghe Doja, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Gloria Băneasa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gloria Băneasa win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gloria Băneasa home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Recolta Gheorghe Doja away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gloria Băneasa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Gloria Băneasa and 1.48 for Recolta Gheorghe Doja, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Gloria Băneasa
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Fundulea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Agricola Borcea · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Oţelul II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunarea Calarasi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Înainte Modelu · 0-1 (L)
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 28 |
| 2 | Tunari | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Berca | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Voința Crevedia | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Progresul Draganesti | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 13 |
| 7 | Pucioasa | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Urban Titu | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Râmnicu Sărat | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Plopeni | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gloria Băneasa win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.