· Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Gneist vs Djerv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Gneist and 2.40 for Djerv, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Djerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Djerv win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gneist home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Djerv away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Djerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 19% / 19% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Gneist and 2.40 for Djerv, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–17.7%
- 1–37.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–16.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.20 (model 34.2% vs market 28.9%, edge +5.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.20 | 28.9% | 34.2% | 2.92 | +5.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.50 | 37.7% | 38.0% | 2.63 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 18.5% | 18.7% | 5.35 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.44 | 61.7% | 61.9% | 1.62 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 80.5% | 80.6% | 1.24 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 19.8% | 19.3% | 5.18 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 81.9% | 81.2% | 1.23 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.30 | 71.1% | 65.8% | 1.52 | -5.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gneist
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Austevoll · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-3 (D)
Djerv
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Djerv win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.