· Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Gneist vs Os Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Gneist and 2.40 for Os, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives Os the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Os win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gneist home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Os away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.1%
- 2–15.9%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Gneist
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Austevoll · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-3 (D)
Os
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Askøy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fana · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · Gneist 1-3 Os (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2025-10-26T11:00:00.000Z · Gneist 1-3 Os (3. Division - Girone 4)
- 2025-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · Gneist 3-2 Os (3. Division - Girone 4)
- 2023-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · Gneist 4-2 Os (3. Division - Girone 1)
- 2023-05-29T13:00:00.000Z · Gneist 1-3 Os (3. Division - Girone 1)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Os win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.