Gnistan vs AC Oulu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.08 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Gnistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gnistan home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gnistan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Gnistan and 1.08 for AC Oulu, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Gnistan win42%

Draw27%

AC Oulu win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–012.0%
0–19.8%
0–09.1%
2–18.6%

Recent form

Gnistan

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Turku PS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 3-2 (W)

AC Oulu

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gnistan · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VPS · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FF Jaro · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	28	14	10	4	14	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	15	6	7	21	51
3	KuPS	27	13	9	5	15	48
4	Gnistan	28	11	9	8	3	42
5	AC Oulu	28	12	4	12	-2	40
6	VPS	27	11	6	10	0	39
1	Lahti	27	11	6	10	9	39
2	Ilves	27	11	5	11	6	38
3	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32
4	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27
5	FF Jaro	27	4	9	14	-27	21
6	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.