Gnistan vs Ilves Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.42 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Gnistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gnistan win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gnistan home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gnistan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Gnistan and 1.42 for Ilves, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gnistan win45%

Draw23%

Ilves win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.1%
1–27.4%
1–07.3%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Gnistan

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VPS · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 2-1 (W)

Ilves

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mariehamn · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Turku PS · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lahti · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FF Jaro · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 3-2 Ilves (Veikkausliiga)
2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 0-2 Ilves (Veikkausliiga)
2026-01-24T12:45:00.000Z · Gnistan 0-1 Ilves (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 1-3 Ilves (Veikkausliiga)
2025-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 2-3 Ilves (Veikkausliiga)
2025-08-04T15:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 2-2 Ilves (Veikkausliiga)
2025-06-01T13:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 0-2 Ilves (Veikkausliiga)
2025-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · Gnistan 3-0 Ilves (Suomen Cup)
2025-03-28T12:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 0-4 Ilves (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 1-1 Ilves (Veikkausliiga)

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	28	14	10	4	14	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	15	6	7	21	51
3	KuPS	28	14	9	5	17	51
4	Gnistan	28	11	9	8	3	42
5	AC Oulu	28	12	4	12	-2	40
6	VPS	28	11	6	11	-2	39
1	Lahti	27	11	6	10	9	39
2	Ilves	27	11	5	11	6	38
3	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32
4	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27
5	FF Jaro	27	4	9	14	-27	21
6	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gnistan win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.