Gnistan vs VPS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.04 for VPS, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Gnistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Gnistan win

47.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gnistan home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VPS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Gnistan win48%

Draw26%

VPS win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.3%
1–011.8%
2–19.2%
2–08.8%
0–18.3%

Recent form

Gnistan

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Turku PS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 3-2 (W)

VPS

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Oulu · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lahti · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-27T16:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 1-1 VPS (Veikkausliiga)
2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 1-1 VPS (Veikkausliiga)
2025-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 0-0 VPS (Veikkausliiga)
2025-06-18T18:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 0-0 VPS (Veikkausliiga)
2024-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 1-0 VPS (Veikkausliiga)
2024-08-04T15:30:00.000Z · Gnistan 3-0 VPS (Veikkausliiga)
2024-04-20T15:30:00.000Z · Gnistan 2-3 VPS (Veikkausliiga)
2021-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Gnistan 1-4 VPS (Ykkönen)
2021-07-18T15:30:00.000Z · Gnistan 2-0 VPS (Ykkönen)
2021-05-12T15:30:00.000Z · Gnistan 0-2 VPS (Ykkönen)

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	27	14	10	3	15	52
2	HJK Helsinki	27	14	6	7	17	48
3	KuPS	27	13	9	5	15	48
4	Gnistan	27	11	9	7	7	42
5	VPS	27	11	6	10	0	39
6	AC Oulu	27	11	4	12	-3	37
1	Lahti	26	10	6	10	5	36
2	Ilves	26	10	5	11	4	35
3	Turku PS	26	8	8	10	0	32
4	SJK	26	6	9	11	-6	27
5	FF Jaro	26	4	8	14	-27	20
6	Mariehamn	26	4	6	16	-27	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gnistan win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.