De Adelaarshorst · Referee Dennis Higler, Netherlands · Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 2.03 for Groningen, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives GO Ahead Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GO Ahead Eagles win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GO Ahead Eagles home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Groningen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.2%
- 2–16.1%
- 3–26.1%
- 3–16.0%
- 4–24.4%
Recent form
GO Ahead Eagles
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-5 (L)
Groningen
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 1-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2026-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 0-0 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 1-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2025-01-18T20:00:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 2-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2024-09-29T12:30:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 1-0 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2023-05-07T12:30:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 1-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-08-21T10:15:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 0-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-02-06T13:30:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 1-2 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2021-11-21T11:15:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 0-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
- 2017-04-22T18:45:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 2-3 Groningen (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 15 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GO Ahead Eagles win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.