De Adelaarshorst · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives GO Ahead Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
GO Ahead Eagles win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GO Ahead Eagles home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PEC Zwolle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GO Ahead Eagles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
GO Ahead Eagles
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 3-3 (D)
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GO Ahead Eagles win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.