De Adelaarshorst · Referee Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.07 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives GO Ahead Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GO Ahead Eagles win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GO Ahead Eagles home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–16.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.75 (model 44.8% vs market 33.7%, edge +11.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.75 | 33.7% | 44.8% | 2.23 | +11.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.9% | 77.2% | 1.30 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.8% | 78.1% | 1.28 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 55.1% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 23.0% | 22.9% | 4.37 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 46.3% | 44.9% | 2.23 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 66.3% | 55.2% | 1.81 | -11.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
GO Ahead Eagles
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-5 (L)
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2026-05-03T14:45:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2025-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2025-02-14T19:00:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2024-12-18T19:00:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam (KNVB Beker)
- 2024-09-15T10:15:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2024-01-21T13:30:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2023-10-22T14:45:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2023-02-12T11:15:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2022-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · GO Ahead Eagles 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GO Ahead Eagles win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.