Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium · Referee M. Kamaruzaman · Analysis updated 11:02 UTC
Goa vs Al Qadsia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Goa and 1.60 for Al Qadsia, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Al Qadsia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Qadsia win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Qadsia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Qadsia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Goa and 1.60 for Al Qadsia, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Goa
Al Qadsia
- 2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Fahaheel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-29T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wathba | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Manila Digger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Pusamania Borneo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Ansar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nejmeh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Regar-TadAZ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Fortis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Kasuka | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Hang Yuen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Paro | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Yangon United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Shan United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Ahal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Goa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Istiqlol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Tainan City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 19 | Central Stallions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Dordoi Bishkek | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Ezra | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Karketu Dili | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Ulaanbaatar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Bangladesh Police | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Muras United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Abu Muslim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Maziya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Al Arabi | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Qadsia win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.