Stade Pele · Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Gobelins vs Aubagne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Gobelins and 0.70 for Aubagne, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives Gobelins the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gobelins win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gobelins home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aubagne away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–016.2%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Gobelins
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bastia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Caen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Aubagne · 0-0 (D)
Aubagne
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Concarneau · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Gobelins · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · Gobelins 0-0 Aubagne (Ligue 3)
- 2026-05-09T17:30:00.000Z · Gobelins 1-1 Aubagne (Ligue 3)
- 2026-01-16T18:30:00.000Z · Gobelins 1-1 Aubagne (Ligue 3)
- 2025-04-11T17:30:00.000Z · Gobelins 1-1 Aubagne (Ligue 3)
- 2024-11-22T18:30:00.000Z · Gobelins 1-0 Aubagne (Ligue 3)
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gobelins win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.