· Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
GOES vs UNA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for GOES and 2.00 for UNA, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives UNA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UNA win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GOES home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UNA away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for GOES and 2.00 for UNA, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
GOES
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs UDI '19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Poortugaal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs UNA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dongen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blauw Geel · 2-2 (D)
UNA
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Poortugaal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blauw Geel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dongen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GOES · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-18T13:30:00.000Z · GOES 0-3 UNA (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
- 2025-08-24T12:30:00.000Z · GOES 1-2 UNA (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
- 2025-03-16T13:30:00.000Z · GOES 0-0 UNA (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
- 2024-10-13T12:30:00.000Z · GOES 1-1 UNA (Derde Divisie - Sunday)
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VV Scherpenzeel | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | SC Genemuiden | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | ACV | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Rijnvogels | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 20 |
| 4 | Harkemase Boys | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 5 | Excelsior '31 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | TEC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 6 | Zwaluwen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | GOES | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Dongen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Blauw Geel | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Poortugaal | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Gemert | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Hercules | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Roosendaal | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Groene Ster | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Staphorst | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | UNA | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Dovo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 15 | TOGB | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Eemdijk | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 1 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UNA win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.