· Analysis updated 08:33 UTC
Goianésia vs Goiânia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Goianésia and 0.77 for Goiânia, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Goianésia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Goianésia win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Goianésia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Goiânia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Goianésia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 30% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Goianésia and 0.77 for Goiânia, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–010.2%
Recent form
Goianésia
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bom Jesus EC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Crixás EC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineiros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Verde · 1-1 (D)
Goiânia
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Crixás EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tupy FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Morrinhos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bom Jesus EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Verde · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Bom Jesus EC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 9 | Trindade | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 10 | Grêmio Anápolis | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Goianésia win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.