· Analysis updated 10:45 UTC
Goiânia vs Rio Verde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.53 expected goals for Goiânia and 1.33 for Rio Verde, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Rio Verde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rio Verde win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
0.53 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Goiânia home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Verde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rio Verde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 15% / 29% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.53 goals for Goiânia and 1.33 for Rio Verde, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.8%
- 0–015.7%
- 0–213.8%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–08.3%
Recent form
Goiânia
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Crixás EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tupy FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Morrinhos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bom Jesus EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Verde · 1-2 (L)
Rio Verde
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Crixás EC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Anápolis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bom Jesus EC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Goianésia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · Goiânia 1-2 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
- 2026-08-26T22:30:00.000Z · Goiânia 1-0 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Bom Jesus EC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 9 | Trindade | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 10 | Grêmio Anápolis | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rio Verde win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.