· Analysis updated 16:29 UTC
Goiás U20 vs América RN U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Goiás U20 and 1.47 for América RN U20, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Goiás U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Goiás U20 win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Goiás U20 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
América RN U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Goiás U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Goiás U20 and 1.47 for América RN U20, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Goiás U20
- 2026-10-21T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceará U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceará U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trindade U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · H vs CRB U20 · 1-1 (D)
América RN U20
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paysandu PA U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Piauí U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs QFC U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-01-16T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio U20 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-01-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol U20 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
São Paulo Youth Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Goiás U20 win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.