· Analysis updated 01:51 UTC
Goiás U20 vs Cerrado EC U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Goiás U20 and 1.45 for Cerrado EC U20, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Goiás U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Goiás U20 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Goiás U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Goiás U20 and 1.45 for Cerrado EC U20, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Goiás U20
- 2026-10-21T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceará U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceará U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trindade U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · H vs CRB U20 · 1-1 (D)
Cerrado EC U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.