Gol Gohar vs Aluminium Arak Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Gol Gohar and 0.93 for Aluminium Arak, a combined total of 1.91. That distribution gives Gol Gohar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.98 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gol Gohar home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aluminium Arak away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gol Gohar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 32% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Gol Gohar and 0.93 for Aluminium Arak, a combined 1.91 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gol Gohar win36%

Draw32%

Aluminium Arak win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–014.8%
1–014.6%
0–113.8%
1–113.5%
2–07.1%

Recent form

Gol Gohar

2026-10-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-08T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jazira · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shams Azar Qazvin · 3-2 (W)

Aluminium Arak

2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-28T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kheybar Khorramabad · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shams Azar Qazvin · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chadormalu SC · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persepolis FC	9	6	2	1	14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	5	5	0	9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	5	2	2	7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	4	4	1	4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	3	5	2	3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	3	5	2	2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	4	1	5	1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	3	4	2	-2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	3	4	3	-4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Paykan	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Malavan	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	1	5	4	-4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	1	4	4	-3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	1	4	5	-10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	0	5	4	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.