Croatian Sports Centre · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Gold Coast Knights and 1.85 for Moreton City Excelsior, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Gold Coast Knights the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gold Coast Knights win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gold Coast Knights home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moreton City Excelsior away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Gold Coast Knights
- 2026-08-29T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Moreton City Excelsior · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Brisbane Roar II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Peninsula Power · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Gold Coast United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Gold Coast United · 1-1 (D)
Moreton City Excelsior
- 2026-09-05T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Peninsula Power · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Gold Coast Knights · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Brisbane Roar II · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T07:00:00.000Z · Gold Coast Knights 0-2 Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL)
- 2026-07-04T06:15:00.000Z · Gold Coast Knights 2-1 Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL)
- 2026-02-20T09:30:00.000Z · Gold Coast Knights 1-4 Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL)
- 2025-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · Gold Coast Knights 0-4 Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL)
- 2025-05-02T09:30:00.000Z · Gold Coast Knights 1-0 Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL)
- 2024-08-02T10:30:00.000Z · Gold Coast Knights 2-5 Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL)
- 2024-04-27T09:30:00.000Z · Gold Coast Knights 3-2 Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL)
Queensland NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 34 |
| 6 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -4 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -26 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -18 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | -20 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gold Coast Knights win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.