Kobuleti Football Center · Analysis updated 12:46 UTC
Gonio vs Betlemi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gonio and 1.03 for Betlemi, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Gonio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gonio home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Betlemi away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gonio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Gonio and 1.03 for Betlemi, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
Gonio
- 2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs WIT Georgia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Varketili · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 2-2 (D)
Betlemi
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iveria Khashuri · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iberia 2010 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Margveti 2006 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Gardabani · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 56 |
| 2 | Varketili | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 44 | 56 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Gonio | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Merani Tbilisi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Didube 2014 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 25 | 3 | 11 | 11 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -42 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -51 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.