Gonio vs Gardabani Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.41 expected goals for Gonio and 0.63 for Gardabani, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Gonio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Gonio win

76.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.41 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gonio home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gonio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.41 goals for Gonio and 0.63 for Gardabani, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 43%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Gonio win77%

Draw15%

Gardabani win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

2–013.9%
1–011.5%
3–011.2%
2–18.7%
1–17.3%

Recent form

Gonio

2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs WIT Georgia · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Varketili · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 2-2 (D)

Gardabani

2026-09-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Betlemi · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Didube 2014 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Irao · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs WIT Georgia · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	24	17	4	3	56	55
2	Varketili	24	15	8	1	43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	11	10	3	18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	11	7	5	10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	11	5	7	12	38
6	Gonio	23	11	5	7	8	38
7	Irao	23	10	5	8	11	35
8	Didube 2014	24	9	8	7	4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	9	5	9	1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	8	7	8	1	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	9	4	11	-9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	7	4	13	-15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	24	2	11	11	-16	17
14	Gardabani	24	4	4	16	-40	16
15	Betlemi	24	4	4	16	-48	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	3	5	16	-36	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gonio win, at 76.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.