· Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
Gonsenheim vs Diefflen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Gonsenheim and 1.95 for Diefflen, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives Gonsenheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gonsenheim win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gonsenheim home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Diefflen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.5%
- 2–26.3%
- 3–16.2%
- 3–26.0%
- 1–14.5%
Recent form
Gonsenheim
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirmasens · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS RW Koblenz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cosmos Koblenz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FV Engers 07 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Emmelshausen-Karbach · 2-0 (W)
Diefflen
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrweiler · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wormatia Worms · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Wiesbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs TuS Koblenz · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-08T17:30:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 4-0 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 2-3 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2025-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 4-1 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2025-05-28T17:30:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 4-2 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2024-11-16T12:00:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 3-1 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2023-12-02T14:00:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 4-0 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2023-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 4-0 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2023-05-07T13:00:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 8-0 Diefflen (Oberliga - Promotion Round)
- 2023-04-01T12:00:00.000Z · Gonsenheim 0-1 Diefflen (Oberliga - Promotion Round)
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mechtersheim | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 2 | Schott Mainz | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Gonsenheim | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Pirmasens | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 24 |
| 5 | FV Engers 07 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | TuS Koblenz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 7 | Wormatia Worms | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 |
| 8 | RW Wittlich | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| 9 | TuS RW Koblenz | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 10 | Gau-Odernheim | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 11 | FC Emmelshausen-Karbach | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 19 |
| 12 | Elversberg II | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 | Hertha Wiesbach | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 15 |
| 14 | Auersmacher | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Cosmos Koblenz | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -5 | 13 |
| 16 | Ahrweiler | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | Diefflen | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -22 | 7 |
| 18 | Eisbachtal | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -39 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gonsenheim win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.