GOR Mahia vs AFC Leopards Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for GOR Mahia and 1.31 for AFC Leopards, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives GOR Mahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

GOR Mahia home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GOR Mahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for GOR Mahia and 1.31 for AFC Leopards, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

GOR Mahia win37%

Draw26%

AFC Leopards win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–09.5%
0–19.3%
2–18.3%
1–28.1%

Recent form

GOR Mahia

2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri · 1-0 (W)

AFC Leopards

2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidco United · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs APS Bomet · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Homeboyz · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.