· Analysis updated 02:39 UTC
GOR Mahia vs Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for GOR Mahia and 0.68 for Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives GOR Mahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GOR Mahia win
70.8% probability
Expected goals
2.12 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GOR Mahia home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GOR Mahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for GOR Mahia and 0.68 for Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 43%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.7%
- 1–012.9%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
GOR Mahia
- 2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs APS Bomet · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Murang'a SEAL · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-2 (L)
Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CECAFA Club Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rayon Sports | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | GOR Mahia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Jamus | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Vipers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | APR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Simba | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Singida Black Stars | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Tusker | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Mogadishu City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | KVZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GOR Mahia win, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.