· Analysis updated 06:09 UTC
GOR Mahia vs Al Hilal Omdurman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for GOR Mahia and 1.70 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Al Hilal Omdurman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Hilal Omdurman win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GOR Mahia home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Hilal Omdurman away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hilal Omdurman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 17% / 24% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for GOR Mahia and 1.70 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
GOR Mahia
- 2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs APS Bomet · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Murang'a SEAL · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-2 (L)
Al Hilal Omdurman
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sidama Bunna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamus · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CECAFA Club Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rayon Sports | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | GOR Mahia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Jamus | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Vipers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | APR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Simba | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Singida Black Stars | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Tusker | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Mogadishu City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | KVZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Hilal Omdurman win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.