· Analysis updated 09:51 UTC
Gorée vs AJEL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Gorée and 0.46 for AJEL, a combined total of 1.31. That distribution gives Gorée the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
81.1% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AJEL away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gorée to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 39% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Gorée and 0.46 for AJEL, a combined 1.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 15% and both teams to score at 21%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
61%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.9%
- 1–022.9%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Gorée
AJEL
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Génération Foot · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraaf · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Génération Foot · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs La Linguère · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorée · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 81.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.