Gorleston vs Heybridge Swifts Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Gorleston and 0.76 for Heybridge Swifts, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Gorleston the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gorleston win

74.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gorleston home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gorleston to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Gorleston and 0.76 for Heybridge Swifts, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 48%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Gorleston win74%

Draw16%

Heybridge Swifts win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

2–012.2%
1–010.0%
3–09.9%
2–19.2%
1–17.6%

Recent form

Gorleston

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newmarket · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leighton Town · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stotfold · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Leiston · 1-3 (L)

Heybridge Swifts

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Isthmian North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maldon & Tiptree	42	30	7	5	64	97
2	Felixstowe & Walton Utd	42	30	7	5	53	97
3	Waltham Abbey	42	24	8	10	38	80
4	Stanway Rovers	42	22	11	9	26	77
5	Redbridge	42	21	8	13	18	71
6	Gorleston	42	22	5	15	3	71
7	Bowers & Pitsea	42	19	11	12	32	68
8	Wroxham	42	19	10	13	7	67
9	Witham Town	42	17	11	14	9	62
10	Walthamstow	42	16	10	16	6	58
11	Tilbury	42	15	13	14	3	58
12	Concord Rangers	42	16	8	18	-2	56
13	Cambridge City	42	14	14	14	9	56
14	Brightlingsea Regent	42	16	8	18	-2	56
15	Newmarket Town	42	15	9	18	0	54
16	Lowestoft Town	42	14	7	21	-22	49
17	Takeley	42	13	8	21	-29	47
18	Grays Athletic	42	12	8	22	-16	44
19	Mildenhall Town	42	12	5	25	-28	41
20	Downham Town	42	8	13	21	-29	37
21	Heybridge Swifts	42	7	7	28	-56	28
22	Brantham Athletic	42	4	4	34	-84	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gorleston win, at 74.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.