· Analysis updated 11:15 UTC
Gorleston vs Leiston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Gorleston and 1.37 for Leiston, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Gorleston the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gorleston win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gorleston home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leiston away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gorleston to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Gorleston and 1.37 for Leiston, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–06.8%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Gorleston
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newmarket · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leighton Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stotfold · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Leiston · 1-3 (L)
Leiston
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Bedford · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gorleston win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.