Górnik Łęczna vs Avia Świdnik Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 3.00 for Avia Świdnik, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Avia Świdnik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Avia Świdnik win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 3.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Górnik Łęczna home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Avia Świdnik away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Avia Świdnik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 25% / 17% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Górnik Łęczna and 3.00 for Avia Świdnik, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Górnik Łęczna win25%

Draw17%

Avia Świdnik win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

1–26.1%
1–36.1%
2–26.1%
2–36.1%
1–44.5%

Recent form

Górnik Łęczna

2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 0-0 (D)

Avia Świdnik

2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · Górnik Łęczna 0-1 Avia Świdnik (II Liga - East)
2026-01-17T11:30:00.000Z · Górnik Łęczna 1-1 Avia Świdnik (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-01-18T10:00:00.000Z · Górnik Łęczna 7-0 Avia Świdnik (Friendlies Clubs)

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	13	7	6	0	12	27
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	13	5	5	3	2	20
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Avia Świdnik win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.