· Analysis updated 13:13 UTC
Górnik Łęczna vs Chojniczanka Chojnice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.28 for Chojniczanka Chojnice, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Górnik Łęczna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Górnik Łęczna win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Górnik Łęczna home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chojniczanka Chojnice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Górnik Łęczna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.28 for Chojniczanka Chojnice, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.44 | 64.5% | 67.0% | 1.49 | +2.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.7% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.9% | 75.7% | 1.32 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 44.7% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 29.8% | 30.3% | 3.30 | +0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 54.7% | 54.7% | 1.83 | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.20 | 42.4% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 70.3% | 69.8% | 1.43 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 24.4% | 4.10 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.62 | 35.5% | 33.0% | 3.03 | -2.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Górnik Łęczna
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 0-0 (D)
Chojniczanka Chojnice
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Hutnik Kraków · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-03-18T14:00:00.000Z · Górnik Łęczna 0-0 Chojniczanka Chojnice (I Liga)
- 2023-01-28T11:30:00.000Z · Górnik Łęczna 0-2 Chojniczanka Chojnice (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-28T11:30:00.000Z · Górnik Łęczna 0-2 Chojniczanka Chojnice (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · Górnik Łęczna 1-2 Chojniczanka Chojnice (I Liga)
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Górnik Łęczna win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.