· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.53 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Górnik Łęczna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Górnik Łęczna win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Górnik Łęczna home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GKS Katowice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Górnik Łęczna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.53 for GKS Katowice, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Górnik Łęczna
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 0-0 (D)
GKS Katowice
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Górnik Łęczna win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.