· Analysis updated 06:06 UTC
Górnik Łęczna vs Kalisz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.37 for Kalisz, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Górnik Łęczna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Górnik Łęczna win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Górnik Łęczna home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalisz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Górnik Łęczna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.37 for Kalisz, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Górnik Łęczna
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 0-0 (D)
Kalisz
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczevia Stargard · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Górnik Łęczna win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.