Górnik Łęczna vs Znicz Pruszków Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.85 for Znicz Pruszków, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Znicz Pruszków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Znicz Pruszków win

47.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Górnik Łęczna home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Znicz Pruszków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.85 for Znicz Pruszków, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Górnik Łęczna win30%

Draw23%

Znicz Pruszków win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–29.2%
2–17.1%
0–17.0%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Górnik Łęczna

2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 0-0 (D)

Znicz Pruszków

2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	9	2	1	13	29
2	Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Znicz Pruszków win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.