· Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Górnik Polkowice and 1.45 for Sparta Katowice, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Górnik Polkowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Górnik Polkowice home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Katowice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Górnik Polkowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Górnik Polkowice and 1.45 for Sparta Katowice, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–18.0%
Recent form
Górnik Polkowice
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 0-1 (L)
Sparta Katowice
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Carina Gubin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ROW Rybnik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Gorzów · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedź Legnica II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-13T14:30:00.000Z · Górnik Polkowice 0-4 Sparta Katowice (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · Górnik Polkowice 0-2 Sparta Katowice (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.