Stadion MOSiR · Analysis updated 19:11 UTC
Górnik Zabrze II vs Lechia Zielona Góra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Górnik Zabrze II and 1.55 for Lechia Zielona Góra, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Górnik Zabrze II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Górnik Zabrze II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lechia Zielona Góra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Górnik Zabrze II
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Polkowice · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SKRA Częstochowa · 2-1 (W)
Lechia Zielona Góra
- 2026-10-24T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-01T13:00:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 0-2 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 0-3 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 3-0 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 1-2 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 1-0 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 1-2 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-03-26T14:00:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 4-0 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-08-21T12:00:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 3-1 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-06-11T12:00:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 2-3 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-11-07T12:30:00.000Z · Górnik Zabrze II 2-0 Lechia Zielona Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.