Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla · Referee Wojciech Myc, Poland · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.90 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lech Poznan win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gornik Zabrze home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lech Poznan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lech Poznan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.90 for Lech Poznan, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
Recent form
Gornik Zabrze
- 2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Motor Lublin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 2-1 (W)
Lech Poznan
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomiak Radom · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lech Poznan win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.