Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla · Referee Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland · Analysis updated 18:36 UTC
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.83 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives Gornik Zabrze the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gornik Zabrze win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gornik Zabrze home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wisla Krakow away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gornik Zabrze to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 18% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.83 for Wisla Krakow, a combined 4.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.1%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.2%
Recent form
Gornik Zabrze
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Motor Lublin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-0 (W)
Wisla Krakow
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wieczysta Kraków | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gornik Zabrze win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.