Gornji Rahić vs Zvijezda Gradačac Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gornji Rahić and 1.40 for Zvijezda Gradačac, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Zvijezda Gradačac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gornji Rahić home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zvijezda Gradačac away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zvijezda Gradačac to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Gornji Rahić and 1.40 for Zvijezda Gradačac, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gornji Rahić win35%

Draw26%

Zvijezda Gradačac win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.2%
1–08.7%
1–28.5%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Gornji Rahić

2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 0-3 (L)
2025-06-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuzla City · 1-0 (W)
2025-05-31T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tomislav · 2-1 (W)
2025-05-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Goražde · 1-4 (L)
2025-05-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Radnički Lukavac · 7-2 (W)

Zvijezda Gradačac

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stupčanica Olovo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Travnik · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloboda Tuzla · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · Gornji Rahić 1-1 Zvijezda Gradačac (1st League - FBiH)
2024-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · Gornji Rahić 2-3 Zvijezda Gradačac (1st League - FBiH)
2024-06-01T15:30:00.000Z · Gornji Rahić 0-0 Zvijezda Gradačac (1st League - FBiH)
2023-11-11T12:30:00.000Z · Gornji Rahić 2-0 Zvijezda Gradačac (1st League - FBiH)

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	11	8	3	0	10	27
2	Travnik	11	8	1	2	12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	6	3	2	10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	6	2	3	13	20
5	GOŠK Gabela	11	6	2	3	7	20
6	Igman Konjic	11	5	4	2	4	19
7	TOŠK Tešanj	11	5	2	4	4	17
8	Bratstvo Gračanica	11	3	5	3	-2	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	3	4	4	1	13
10	Vitez	11	3	3	5	-5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	3	2	6	1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	11	2	2	7	-12	8
15	Čapljina	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Tomislav	11	2	2	7	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.