· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Gorno Lisiče vs Novaci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gorno Lisiče and 0.65 for Novaci, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Gorno Lisiče the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gorno Lisiče win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gorno Lisiče home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Novaci away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gorno Lisiče to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 32% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Gorno Lisiče and 0.65 for Novaci, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.1%
- 0–016.9%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.7%
Recent form
Gorno Lisiče
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Detonit Plachkovica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Novaci · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Osogovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Belasica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ohrid · 1-2 (L)
Novaci
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Gorno Lisiče · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Detonit Plachkovica · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · Gorno Lisiče 0-0 Novaci (Second League)
- 2018-05-19T14:30:00.000Z · Gorno Lisiče 0-0 Novaci (Second League)
- 2017-10-28T11:30:00.000Z · Gorno Lisiče 2-1 Novaci (Second League)
- 2017-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · Gorno Lisiče 0-2 Novaci (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Pelister | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Rabotnicki | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Kamjani | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 6 | Teteks | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Belasica | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Detonit Plachkovica | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Novaci | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gorno Lisiče win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.