Gradski stadion Lapad · Analysis updated 18:55 UTC
GOŠK Dubrovnik vs Sloga Mravince Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for GOŠK Dubrovnik and 1.40 for Sloga Mravince, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives GOŠK Dubrovnik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GOŠK Dubrovnik home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GOŠK Dubrovnik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for GOŠK Dubrovnik and 1.40 for Sloga Mravince, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
GOŠK Dubrovnik
- 2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sloga Mravince · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kamen Ivanbegovina · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Val Kaštel Stari · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs HNK Zadar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiš · 2-0 (W)
Sloga Mravince
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 1-2 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 1-0 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 1-1 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2024-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 1-2 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2024-02-25T13:30:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 0-4 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2023-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 1-3 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2023-03-11T14:00:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 1-0 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2022-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 1-3 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2022-02-20T13:30:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 1-1 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
- 2021-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · GOŠK Dubrovnik 0-1 Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)
Third NL - Jug table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zagora | 30 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 39 | 69 |
| 2 | Neretva Metković | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 63 |
| 3 | HNK Zadar | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 60 |
| 4 | Sloga Mravince | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 5 | Junak | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 42 |
| 6 | Jadran KS | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -13 | 39 |
| 7 | GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -5 | 38 |
| 8 | Vodice | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -4 | 37 |
| 9 | Primorac Biograd | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 37 |
| 10 | Hrvatski vitez | 30 | 11 | 3 | 16 | -12 | 36 |
| 11 | GOŠK Dubrovnik | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | -2 | 35 |
| 12 | Val Kaštel Stari | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -13 | 35 |
| 13 | Sibenik | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -17 | 34 |
| 14 | Omiš | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -6 | 33 |
| 15 | Neretvanac Opuzen | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -13 | 33 |
| 16 | Kamen Ivanbegovina | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -31 | 30 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.