· Analysis updated 00:59 UTC
GOŠK Gabela vs Čapljina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for GOŠK Gabela and 0.80 for Čapljina, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives GOŠK Gabela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
GOŠK Gabela win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Čapljina away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GOŠK Gabela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for GOŠK Gabela and 0.80 for Čapljina, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
GOŠK Gabela
Čapljina
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stupčanica Olovo · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 2-2 (D)
- 2021-09-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-2 (L)
- 2021-06-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Travnik · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - FBiH table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Posušje | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Travnik | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Sloboda Tuzla | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Stupčanica Olovo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | Igman Konjic | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | GOŠK Gabela | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | TOŠK Tešanj | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Vitez | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Radnik Hadžići | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Budućnost Banovići | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Rudar Kakanj | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Čapljina | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Tomislav | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GOŠK Gabela win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.