· Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Gossau vs Locarno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gossau and 1.40 for Locarno, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Gossau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gossau home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Locarno away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gossau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Gossau and 1.40 for Locarno, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Gossau
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Taverne · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Locarno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dietikon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tuggen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wettswil-Bonstetten · 2-2 (D)
Locarno
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kosova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thalwil · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Baden · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Taverne · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Taverne | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Thalwil | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Baden | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Kosova | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Collina d'Oro | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Eschen / Mauren | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Locarno | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Freienbach | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Winterthur II | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Mendrisio | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Widnau | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.