Göteborg W vs Elfsborg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Göteborg W and 1.53 for Elfsborg W, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Göteborg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Göteborg W win

46.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Göteborg W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elfsborg W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Göteborg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Göteborg W and 1.53 for Elfsborg W, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Göteborg W win47%

Draw22%

Elfsborg W win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.4%
2–19.0%
1–27.2%
2–26.8%
1–06.2%

Recent form

Göteborg W

2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Elfsborg W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KIF Örebro W · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jitex W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Häcken W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Husqvarna W · 2-1 (W)

Elfsborg W

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Örebro SK W · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamla Upsala W · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alingsås W · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Trelleborg W · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Göteborg W · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · Göteborg W 1-1 Elfsborg W (Elitettan)
2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · Göteborg W 1-1 Elfsborg W (Elitettan)

Elitettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Elfsborg W	23	16	6	1	34	54
2	KIF Örebro W	22	16	2	4	30	50
3	Göteborg W	22	14	6	2	32	48
4	Linköping W	22	13	4	5	11	43
5	Umeå W	23	12	5	6	17	41
6	Husqvarna W	23	9	5	9	-2	32
7	Trelleborg W	23	9	5	9	-7	32
8	Jitex W	23	7	7	9	-7	28
9	Örebro SK W	23	7	5	11	-13	26
10	Enskede W	22	7	4	11	-8	25
11	Alingsås W	22	5	7	10	-9	22
12	Gamla Upsala W	22	4	5	13	-15	17
13	Sandviken W	22	2	5	15	-38	11
14	Häcken II W	22	2	2	18	-25	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Göteborg W win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.