· Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.55 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Göztepe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Göztepe win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Göztepe home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trabzonspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Göztepe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 26% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Göztepe and 0.55 for Trabzonspor, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.5%
- 2–014.4%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Göztepe
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rizespor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanyaspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaziantep FK · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 0-1 (L)
Trabzonspor
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Göztepe win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.