· Analysis updated 16:25 UTC
Gozzano vs Chisola Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gozzano and 1.23 for Chisola, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Gozzano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chisola away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gozzano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Gozzano and 1.23 for Chisola, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Gozzano
Chisola
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Borgosesia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ligorna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Biellese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanremese · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Biellese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Derthona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Ligorna | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Asti | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Gozzano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Saluzzo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Millesimo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Chisola | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Imperia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lascaris | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sanremese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Fezzanese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Bra | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.