Stadion Rajko Mit · Analysis updated 06:25 UTC
Grafičar vs OFK Bor 1919 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Grafičar and 0.88 for OFK Bor 1919, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Grafičar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grafičar win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grafičar home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
OFK Bor 1919 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grafičar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 28% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Grafičar and 0.88 for OFK Bor 1919, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–19.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 56.3% vs market 43.5%, edge +12.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 56.3% | 1.78 | +12.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 51.2% | 51.7% | 1.93 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 23.7% | 24.1% | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 72.4% | 1.38 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 48.5% | 48.3% | 2.07 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.8% | 27.6% | 3.62 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.8% | 75.9% | 1.32 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 43.7% | 2.29 | -12.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Grafičar
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalac GM · 0-1 (L)
OFK Bor 1919
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Ub · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Javor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleoptik · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalac GM · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Javor | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Semendrija 1924 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 6 | Dubočica | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Napredak | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Loznica | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Naftagas | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 13 | Jedinstvo Ub | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grafičar win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.