Grama vs L'Hospitalet Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Grama and 0.95 for L'Hospitalet, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Grama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Grama win

46.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grama home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
L'Hospitalet away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Grama win47%

Draw27%

L'Hospitalet win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.4%
1–112.8%
0–09.8%
0–19.3%
2–09.2%

Recent form

Grama

2026-10-11T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tona · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañesa · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Martinenc · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 2-1 (W)

L'Hospitalet

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cornellà · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Comillas · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-07T16:30:00.000Z · Grama 3-1 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2025-10-26T10:45:00.000Z · Grama 2-2 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2025-04-27T10:00:00.000Z · Grama 0-2 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2024-12-15T10:45:00.000Z · Grama 1-4 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2024-01-28T10:45:00.000Z · Grama 3-2 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2023-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · Grama 0-3 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2023-01-08T11:00:00.000Z · Grama 0-3 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2022-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · Grama 1-1 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2022-01-30T11:00:00.000Z · Grama 1-0 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2021-09-26T09:45:00.000Z · Grama 2-1 L'Hospitalet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Grama win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.